Oil prices are behaving like a rollercoaster again. With global benchmarks like Brent crude touching the $105 per barrel mark this March, everyone in the UAE is looking at their fuel gauge with a bit of dread. There's a lot of chatter about April petrol prices jumping toward Dh3.80 or even Dh4 per litre. It's a scary number, especially if you've got a long commute from Sharjah to Dubai or a thirsty SUV in the driveway.
But before you trade in your car for an e-bike, let's look at the actual math. While $105 oil is a massive jump from where we started the year, the jump to Dh4 per litre isn't a guaranteed reality for April. The UAE Fuel Price Committee doesn't just look at one day of high prices; they track the average over the month.
The Reality of $105 Oil and Your Wallet
The surge in oil prices isn't happening in a vacuum. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East, specifically around the Strait of Hormuz, has traders in a panic. When 20% of the world's oil flows through a narrow channel that’s suddenly under threat, prices don’t just rise—they spike. We’ve seen Brent climb from the mid-70s to over $100 in what feels like a blink.
For March, we're already seeing the impact. Super 98 is currently Dh2.59 per litre, and Special 95 is Dh2.48. If the current $105 average holds throughout the rest of March, a price hike for April is inevitable. However, the Dh4 prediction is likely an outlier. Historically, even when oil was in the $110-$120 range back in 2022, prices in the UAE peaked around Dh4.63. At $105, we’re more likely looking at a move toward the Dh3.20 to Dh3.40 range for Super 98, rather than an immediate leap to Dh4.
Why the Gap Between Oil Prices and Pump Prices Exists
You’ve probably noticed that when oil drops, petrol prices take forever to follow. When oil goes up? The hike feels instant. Honestly, it's not just a conspiracy to take your money. The UAE's pricing mechanism is linked to international refined product benchmarks—not just the raw "crude" price you see on the news.
Refining costs, shipping, and insurance for tankers have all skyrocketed. If it’s more expensive to turn that $105 oil into 95-octane petrol and ship it, those costs get passed down. Currently, the "geopolitical risk premium" is adding about $10 to $18 to every barrel. This is "fear money" that hasn't necessarily translated to a physical shortage yet.
- Refining Margins: Refineries are struggling with higher operational costs.
- Logistics: Rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Suez Canal or Hormuz adds massive freight costs.
- Monthly Averaging: The committee uses a trailing average. One bad week at $105 might be balanced by two weeks at $85.
What to Actually Expect in April
If you're trying to budget for next month, don't panic-buy a Tesla just yet. While we will see an increase, the Dh3.80–Dh4.00 range usually requires oil to stay consistently above $115 for a sustained period.
Expect a "correction" hike. We’ve had a few months of relatively cheap fuel in early 2026, with Super 98 as low as Dh2.45 in February. A jump to Dh2.85 or Dh3.05 for April is a much more realistic—though still painful—forecast based on the current $105 Brent price.
Practical Ways to Combat the Hike
Since we can’t control global oil markets, you have to control your consumption. Small changes actually move the needle when fuel is over Dh3.
- Check Your Tyres: Under-inflated tyres are basically like driving through sand. You're wasting 3% to 5% of your fuel just fighting friction.
- AC Management: We live in the UAE; you aren't turning off the AC. But you don't need it on "Max Arctic" the second you get in. Use the "Auto" setting to keep the compressor from working overtime.
- The 100km/h Sweet Spot: Drag increases exponentially with speed. If you're doing 140km/h on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road, you’re burning significantly more than at 110km/h.
Keep an eye on the official announcement on March 31. Until then, don't let the "Dh4 per litre" headlines ruin your week—it’s possible, but the data suggests we aren’t there just yet. Fill up your tank on the last day of the month before the new rates kick in. It’s a classic UAE move for a reason.
