Geopolitics isn't a chess game. It's a high-stakes poker match played with loaded guns, and right now, the table is completely chaotic.
Tens of thousands of hardline regime loyalists flooded the streets of Tehran, packed into the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla. They beat their chests, waved portraits, and openly chanted for the assassination of Donald Trump. The atmosphere at the days-long funeral for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—who was killed back on February 28 in a joint US-Israeli airstrike—is thick with rage.
But while the crowds are screaming for blood, the actual leaders in Washington and Tehran are busy cutting backroom deals. It's a surreal split reality.
The Public Outrage Versus the Private Pause
If you only watched Iranian state television, you'd think World War III was about to kick off. Mourners are demanding immediate, violent retribution. The red Shia flag of revenge is flying high, and prominent figures like Saeed Jalili from the Supreme National Security Council are publicly declaring that avenging Khamenei is a binding duty.
Yet, behind the scenes, both governments just agreed to take a week off.
Donald Trump recently hopped on a call with Axios and basically bragged about how easy it would be to wipe out the entire Iranian regime in one go. He noted that because of the funeral, Iran's top leadership was gathered in a single geographic location.
"They are all there," Trump told Axios. "One shot, but we are not going to do that because then we would have nobody to negotiate with."
Instead of launching a missile, Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary pause in hostilities. There's a mutual understanding that neither side will shoot at the other until the funeral rituals wrap up on July 9. Diplomacy is scheduled to pick right back up on July 11 in Pakistan. Trump even joked during a July 4 speech at Mount Rushmore that the US gave Iran a week off because "we're nice."
Why Iran's Regime is Barking but Not Biting Yet
The Islamic Republic is in a deeply fragile position, and its leadership knows it. The airstrikes that killed Khamenei also wiped out several family members and decimated key military infrastructure. While the clerical establishment managed to survive with its governing system intact, the country is intensely polarized. When news of Khamenei's death first broke, many Iranian citizens actually celebrated in the streets, forcing security forces to open fire on their own people to maintain order.
The regime needs this week-long funeral procession. It's using the public grieving to project an illusion of total national unity and to legitimize Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Interestingly, Mojtaba hasn't even been seen in public during the funeral, reportedly recovering from injuries sustained in the very strike that killed his father.
By allowing the crowds to chant "Kill Trump," the regime vents public anger safely without committing to an immediate, catastrophic military escalation that they'd likely lose. Iranian military officials, like Brigadier-General Akraminia, admitted on the sidelines of the funeral that they are using this diplomatic ceasefire to upgrade combat readiness. They are buying time.
Trump's "One Shot" Rhetoric is Classic Posturing
Trump's claim that he could take everyone out with "one shot" but chose not to out of sheer pragmatism is textbook deal-making theater. He wants Iran to think he's completely unpredictable, keeping them off balance so they stay at the negotiating table. According to Trump, Tehran is "begging to make a deal" because the economic and military pressure has left them with no other cards to play.
But this strategy carries massive risks. Dismissing the tears of millions of mourners as "fake tears"—as Trump did in his Axios interview—fuels deep-seated ideological hatred. An Iranian lawmaker, Meisam Zohurian, quickly fired back on social media, stating that any diplomatic memorandum of understanding with the US is entirely separate from Iran's long-term case for revenge.
What Happens When the Ceasefire Expires
Don't buy into the idea that a peaceful resolution is a done deal just because negotiations resume next week. The gap between what the Iranian public demands and what the Iranian government can logistically pull off is widening.
If you are tracking this situation, keep your eyes on the July 11 talks in Pakistan. The real test of stability won't be the aggressive rhetoric shouted at the funeral podiums, but whether Mojtaba Khamenei's new regime can sign a deal without triggering a revolt from its own hardline military base. Watch the troop movements in southern Lebanon and the Persian Gulf the moment the funeral ends on July 9. That's when we'll see if the bluffs turn real.
