You’d think a single suburban riding 40 kilometers north of Montreal wouldn't hold the keys to the entire country, but here we are. Terrebonne is about to decide if Prime Minister Mark Carney gets a free pass to run Canada without asking for permission from anyone else. The math is simple, even if the politics are messy.
Right now, the Liberals are sitting on 171 seats. That’s just one shy of a slim majority. With three byelections hitting the calendar this Monday, April 13, Carney is staring at a gold-plated opportunity. Two of those seats—Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale—are Liberal fortresses. Short of a political miracle or a sudden change in the laws of physics, the Liberals have those in the bag. That gets them to 173. But Terrebonne? That’s where the real fight is happening.
The one-vote ghost
If you feel like you’ve heard this story before, it's because you have. Last year, Liberal Tatiana Auguste was declared the winner by exactly one vote. One. That’s not a mandate; that’s a rounding error. The Supreme Court eventually stepped in and tossed the whole result because of a clerical screw-up involving mail-in ballots.
So, we’re doing it again. It’s a rematch between Auguste and the Bloc Québécois’ Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné. For the Bloc, this is about pride and holding onto a traditional stronghold. For the Liberals, it’s about absolute control.
Why Carney is smiling
Mark Carney isn't Justin Trudeau. He’s been in the job for a year, and he’s playing a much tighter game. While Trudeau’s final months were defined by a messy breakup with the NDP, Carney has been quietly picking off opposition members. Just this week, Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus. She’s the fifth person to defect to Carney’s side in recent months.
That’s why the vibe at the Liberal convention in Montreal this weekend is going to be electric. They aren't just there to talk policy; they’re there to provide an army of door-knockers for Terrebonne. Marjorie Michel, the health minister and a heavy-hitter in Quebec organizing, isn't hiding the party's ambition. They’re "fighting to win" because they know a win here means they don't have to look over their shoulder at the NDP or the Bloc until 2029.
The ground game in Terrebonne
Don't be fooled by the high-level talk of majorities and seat counts. On the ground, people in Terrebonne are talking about gas prices and the cost of rent. It’s the same story you’ll hear in any suburb in Canada. The difference here is the intensity.
The Liberals are reportedly outspending the Bloc three-to-one in this riding. They’ve sent 43 Quebec MPs to walk the streets. They’re treating this like a general election, while the Bloc is leaning heavily on identity and the "protest vote" angle. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet is trying to frame this as a choice between a local voice and a rubber stamp for Ottawa, but Carney’s team is betting that voters want to be on the winning side of a majority government.
The longest ballot headache
There’s one weird wildcard that could make Monday night a long one for everyone involved. A group called the Longest Ballot Committee has flooded the race with dozens of candidates. It’s a protest against the first-past-the-post voting system. This means voters are going to be handed a literal scroll of names, and the results will likely take forever to count.
It’s annoying for the officials, but it doesn't change the stakes. If the Liberals sweep all three, Carney becomes the most powerful man in Canadian politics since the early 2000s. If the Bloc holds Terrebonne, the Liberal majority becomes a "technical" one—vulnerable to a single sick day or a rogue backbencher.
What happens next
If you live in Terrebonne, you’re probably sick of the leaflets and the robocalls. But you're in the driver's seat.
- Check your polling station: With the "long ballot" in play, expect lines. Don't wait until 7:55 PM to show up.
- Look at the big picture: This isn't just about a local MP. It’s about whether you want a minority parliament that has to compromise or a majority that has a clear path for the next three years.
- Ignore the noise: Both sides are going to claim they’re winning until the last ballot is counted.
The advance polls already show a 20% turnout, which is massive for a byelection. People are paying attention. By Tuesday morning, we’ll know if Mark Carney has the keys to the kingdom or if he’s still stuck making deals in the hallways of Parliament Hill.
