The headlines are predictable, hollow, and dangerously wrong. "Gunmen kill 13 in Nigeria’s Plateau state attack." This is the industry standard for lazy journalism. It frames a systemic collapse as a series of isolated tragedies. It invites the world to shrug at another "clash" in the Middle Belt.
If you think this is just a religious war or a spontaneous outburst of ethnic hatred, you’ve been fed a narrative designed to hide the real culprit. This isn’t about God. It’s about the total failure of the Nigerian land tenure system and the professionalization of banditry. Until we stop calling these "clashes" and start calling them "resource-driven insurgencies," the body count will continue to rise.
The Myth of the Spontaneous Attack
The common narrative suggests that neighbor turns against neighbor because of a spark—a stolen cow, a desecrated farm, a misinterpreted word. That’s a fairy tale for the intellectually lazy.
I have spent years analyzing the security architecture of the Sahel and the Middle Belt. These attacks are not spontaneous. They are logistical operations. To kill 13 people in a coordinated strike requires reconnaissance, ammunition procurement, and tactical movement. You don't "stumble" into a massacre.
When media outlets focus on the identity of the victims versus the identity of the perpetrators, they play into the hands of the agitators. By emphasizing religion, they provide the killers with a shield of "holy grievance." In reality, these gunmen are often mercenaries or organized criminal elements operating in a vacuum created by a state that has effectively abandoned the rural interior.
Follow the Grass Not the Gospel
Stop looking at the Bible and the Quran. Look at the maps.
The Sahara is moving south at a rate of 0.6 kilometers per year. The Lake Chad basin has shrunk by 90% since the 1960s. This isn't a theological debate; it’s a biological imperative. Millions of herders are moving into the Middle Belt because their traditional lands are now dust.
The "lazy consensus" blames "herder-farmer conflict." This term is a linguistic sedative. It implies a bilateral struggle between two equal parties. It ignores the fact that the Nigerian state has failed to update the Land Use Act of 1978, which remains a relic of a pre-population-explosion era.
- The Land Use Act is the real killer. It vests all land in the state governor, creating a bureaucratic nightmare that prevents local communities from securing legal titles or creating formal grazing reserves.
- Open Grazing is an economic zombie. It is an 18th-century practice trying to survive in a 21st-century demographic reality.
- The Security Vacuum. The Nigerian Police Force is centralized in Abuja. A village in Plateau State has as much protection as a sandcastle against a tide.
The Professionalization of Violence
We need to talk about the "Gunmen." Who are they?
In the old days, a dispute was settled with sticks or machetes. Today, it’s settled with AK-47s. Where does the money come from? It comes from the lucrative business of kidnapping and cattle rustling. Violence in Plateau State is no longer an end; it is a means of clearing territory for criminal fiefdoms.
The international community loves to talk about "peacebuilding" and "inter-faith dialogue." They waste millions on workshops where imams and pastors shake hands in five-star hotels in Jos. It’s theater. You can’t "dialogue" away a lack of water. You can’t "meditate" your way out of a land-title dispute.
If you want to stop the killing, you don't need more Bibles or Korans. You need:
- Drones. Not for killing, but for persistent surveillance of the corridors used by these mobile strike teams.
- Ranching Subsidies. Moving from nomadic herding to sedentary ranching is the only way out. It’s expensive, it’s hard, and it breaks "tradition." Do it anyway.
- State Police. The idea that a federal officer from Lagos can secure a village in Plateau is a fantasy.
The Hard Truth About Stability
The contrarian truth is that the Nigerian government benefits from the "religious conflict" label. It allows them to treat the issue as a social problem rather than a failure of governance. If it’s "hate," they can’t be blamed. If it’s a "failed land policy," the blood is on their hands.
I’ve watched these cycles for decades. The pattern is always the same: Attack, Outcry, Deployment, Silence, Repeat.
We are currently in the "Outcry" phase. The media will count the bodies, name the village, and move on. But unless we dismantle the economic incentives for this violence, those 13 victims are just a down payment on a much larger bill.
We are witnessing the slow-motion collapse of rural order. The "gunmen" are merely the symptoms. The disease is a state that refuses to define who owns what, who goes where, and who is responsible for the gap between the two.
Stop asking why they hate each other. Start asking who profits from the chaos.
The next time you see a headline about "clashes" in Plateau, ignore the religious angle. Look for the land. Look for the routes. Look for the missing state. If you aren't looking at the soil, you aren't looking at the story.
Burn the old scripts. The Middle Belt isn't a battlefield of faiths; it’s a graveyard of failed policy. Build the fences, map the land, and arm the locals with titles, not just prayers. Or keep printing the same headline until there’s no one left to read it.
