The sky over Mosul isn't clear anymore. On March 29, 2026, thick plumes of black smoke became the city’s new horizon after a series of targeted strikes hit the Rashidiya area and surrounding districts. If you've been following the news, you know this isn't just another skirmish. It's a massive shift in a regional war that officially kicked off on February 28, 2026, and Iraq is no longer just a bystander.
People are asking if Mosul is becoming a primary battleground again. The answer is a messy "yes." These latest strikes didn't just hit random buildings; they targeted the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a group that’s technically part of the Iraqi military but operates with a level of autonomy that makes Washington and Israel extremely nervous. When a strike kills two police officers and wounds five others at a checkpoint—as happened this weekend—it tells you the "precision" of these attacks is failing, or the rules of engagement have changed for the worse.
The geography of the Mosul strikes
I've watched how these operations unfold, and the choice of targets in Nineveh province is deliberate. The strikes hit a PMF site in Rashidiya, north of Mosul. Around the same time, reports surfaced of another hit in Tuz Khurmatu. Why does this matter? Because Mosul sits on the doorstep of the "land bridge" connecting Iran to Syria and Lebanon.
The strikes aren't just about destroying a few trucks or a warehouse. They're about breaking the logistical spine of the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" (IRI). Since the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began last month, these Iraqi factions have claimed nearly 300 attacks against US assets. Mosul, with its complex urban terrain and proximity to the Syrian border, is the perfect place for these groups to hide—and the most dangerous place for them to be hunted.
Who is actually pulling the trigger
Iraq’s Ministry of Interior hasn't minced words. They’ve blamed "Zionist-American" aggression for the deaths of their officers. The US usually stays quiet or issues a flat denial when Iraqi security forces—the guys they actually trained—get caught in the crossfire. But the reality on the ground is that the distinction between "official Iraqi military" and "pro-Iran militia" has blurred to the point of invisibility.
- The PMF (Hashed al-Shaabi): They are state-funded but many units take orders from Tehran.
- The US Position: Washington claims it only hits "imminent threats" to its remaining personnel, mostly concentrated in the Kurdistan Region now that they've pulled out of Ain al-Asad.
- The Civilian Cost: When strikes hit police stations used jointly by the PMF, like the one in Mosul this Saturday, the local population pays the price. Al-Rabeein Hospital has been flooded with casualties, and the panic is real.
Mosul is a pressure cooker in 2026
If you think this is just about 2026 politics, you’re missing the history. Mosul is still recovering from the war against ISIS. The infrastructure is fragile. Now, the city has to deal with the fallout of a war it didn't ask for. There's also the "ISIS time bomb" to worry about. In January, Iraq had to take in 7,000 high-risk detainees from Syria to prevent a mass breakout.
Mixing thousands of radicalized prisoners with a city currently being bombed by foreign jets is a recipe for a disaster. The local government is paralyzed. Prime Minister-designate Nouri al-Maliki is facing the same sectarian divisions that broke the country in 2014. Honestly, it feels like we're watching a slow-motion train wreck where nobody wants to jump off.
What you need to do if you have interests in Iraq
The security situation isn't just "unstable"—it's actively deteriorating. If you're managing logistics or have personnel in the region, stop waiting for a "return to normal."
- Trust the Level 4 Warning: The US State Department and the British FCDO aren't being dramatic. The "Do Not Travel" advisory is based on the fact that they can't protect you if a drone hits your hotel or a checkpoint.
- Watch the Airspace: Iraq has been closing its airspace for 72-hour windows with almost no notice. If you're trying to get people out, you need a ground-evacuation plan through the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq), though even that is under fire.
- Monitor the PMF Movements: The strikes are following the PMF. Stay away from any facility, checkpoint, or office associated with the Hashed al-Shaabi. In Mosul, these are often embedded in civilian neighborhoods.
The smoke over Mosul is a signal. It’s a sign that the "shadow war" has fully transitioned into an open conflict, and Iraq's Sovereignty is the first thing to burn.
