The idea that Gaza is a monolith under Hamas control is dead. While the world watches high-level ceasefire negotiations in 2026, a much grittier, bloodier conflict is tearing through the streets of Rafah and Khan Yunis. It’s not just Israel versus Hamas anymore. It’s a messy, fragmented civil war between Hamas and a growing network of Israeli-backed Palestinian militias.
If you’ve been following the news, you’ve probably heard of the Popular Forces. This isn't some grassroots political movement; it’s a paramilitary group of roughly 700 fighters led by Ghassan al-Duhaini. They aren't hiding in tunnels. They’re operating in the open, specifically in areas where the Israeli military still maintains a presence. These groups are doing the dirty work that Israeli boots on the ground want to avoid: hunting Hamas stragglers, securing aid routes, and quite literally dismantling the infrastructure of the old regime.
The New Power Players in the Strip
For years, Hamas ruled Gaza with an iron fist, crushing any family or clan that dared to look sideways at them. That's changing. The "Project New Gaza" isn't just a slogan—it’s a reality being built by men like Hussam al-Astal, leader of the Counterterrorism Strike Force.
These groups aren't operating on vibes. They have real resources. We're talking about:
- Assault rifles and night-vision gear allegedly funneled through Israeli channels.
- Intelligence sharing that allows them to pinpoint Hamas hideouts.
- Logistical support, including food, fuel, and medical evacuations into Israel.
The strategy is simple: "mowing the grass" using local hands. By empowering groups like the Popular Forces in eastern Rafah or the Ashraf al-Mansi group in the north, Israel is creating a buffer. These militias don't have the "popular legitimacy" Western analysts love to talk about, but they have guns and they have a grudge.
A Legacy of Blood and Betrayal
Hamas knows exactly what’s happening. Their spokesperson, Abu Obeida, recently resurfaced with a scathing statement calling these groups "descendants of Abu Righal"—a historical reference to the ultimate traitor. But words only go so far when your commanders are being snatched off the street.
Take the capture of Adham al-Akar, a Hamas company commander in Rafah, this past January. He didn't fall to an Israeli drone. He was grabbed by the Popular Forces. The footage of him standing in his undergarments next to Duhaini was a massive psychological blow. It sent a message: Hamas can't protect you anymore.
But let’s be honest. This "tribal" approach is a massive gamble. Critics in Israel and abroad are already drawing parallels to the Lebanon War in the 80s. When you arm local militias to do your bidding, you’re often just trading one form of chaos for another. The Doghmush and Hellis clans have thousands of enforcers and decades-old blood feuds. They’re not fighting for a "democratic Gaza"—they’re fighting for their own turf.
Why the 2025 Ceasefire Changed Everything
The October 10 ceasefire was supposed to stabilize things. Instead, it created a vacuum. As part of the deal, Hamas was expected to disarm, but they've been using the "quiet" to execute "collaborators" in public squares. In response, the militias have stepped up their operations, claiming they're the only ones capable of providing real security.
Hussam al-Astal has even proposed integrating these militias into a formal Gaza security force that would report to the US-led Board of Peace. It’s a bold move to go from "rebel militia" to "recognized police force." Whether the international community will swallow that is another story.
The Dark Side of the Militia Rise
It’s not all heroics and counter-terrorism. There’s a very dark side to these Israeli-backed groups. The UN has reported "grand larceny" on a massive scale, with the Popular Forces accused of looting up to 98 aid trucks in a single raid near Kerem Shalom.
Imagine you're a civilian in Gaza. On one side, you have Hamas, which brought the war to your doorstep. On the other, you have these new militias who might protect you from Hamas but might also steal your flour and hand you over to the IDF if they don't like your face. It's a lose-lose scenario for the average person.
The militias are effectively operating as "rogue actors." They don't follow a central command. They don't answer to the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. They answer to their commanders and, indirectly, to their Israeli handlers. This fragmentation makes any long-term peace plan like the Trump 20-point framework incredibly difficult to execute.
What Happens Next
Don't expect this to settle down. As the Board of Peace tries to establish a "technocratic government," these militias are already entrenched. They have the guns, they have the territory, and they have the backing of the regional superpower.
If you want to understand the future of Gaza, stop looking at the high-level diplomacy for a second. Look at the "yellow lines" on the map. Look at the local clans who are finally settling scores that have been simmering since 2007. The real fight for Gaza's soul is happening in the alleyways of Rafah, and it's being fought by Palestinians on both sides.
Keep a close eye on the Board of Peace appointments in the coming months. If militia leaders get a seat at the table, it’s a signal that the "tribal model" is here to stay. If they’re sidelined, expect the "security chaos" to escalate into a full-blown internal insurgency that could burn for years.
To stay informed on these shifts, you should track the specific movements of the Popular Forces in eastern Khan Yunis—this is currently the most volatile flashpoint in the Strip. I can help you break down the latest field reports from that region if you need more granular detail.
