Rusty Hicks is worried, and he's not hiding it. The chair of the California Democratic Party recently took the extraordinary step of penning an open letter to the pack of Democrats currently vying to replace Gavin Newsom. His message was blunt: if you don't have a path to victory, get out now. The fear isn't just about a messy primary; it's about a total lockout. Because of California's "top-two" system, a fractured Democratic vote could theoretically hand the November ballot to two Republicans.
It's a nightmare scenario for a party that treats the Golden State as its private fortress. But despite the hand-wringing from party elites, the candidates aren't budging. They aren't dropping out, they aren't "consolidating," and they definitely aren't listening to the boss.
The math that keeps party leaders awake at night
California doesn't do traditional primaries. Everyone runs on the same ballot, and the top two finishers move on, regardless of their party. Usually, this means two Democrats face off in November. However, with eight major Democrats still in the hunt and only two serious Republicans—Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton—the math is getting dicey.
Recent polling from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows the danger. Hilton and Bianco are essentially tied at the top, each pulling between 12% and 17% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Democratic vote is sliced into tiny slivers. Katie Porter leads the Democratic pack, but she’s followed closely by Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer. Behind them, a long tail of candidates like Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Betty Yee are each siphoning off 3% to 5%.
If the Republicans hold their base and the Democrats keep cannibalizing each other, it’s possible—though still a long shot—that the two GOP candidates take the top spots. Hicks called this "possible" but "unlikely." Yet, "possible" is enough to cause a panic when the governorship and down-ballot House races are on the line.
Why the candidates are digging in
You might think a stern letter from the party chair would carry weight. It doesn't. In fact, it's backfiring. Several candidates have framed the "drop out" request as an attack on diversity and grassroots momentum.
State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, currently polling in the low single digits, didn't hold back. He suggested that by asking lower-polling candidates to quit, the party is essentially telling candidates of color to step aside for the better-funded frontrunners. It's a heavy accusation that makes it politically expensive for Hicks to push any harder.
Then there’s the "undecided" factor. About 20% of voters still haven't picked a horse. For a candidate like Betty Yee or Matt Mahan, those undecided voters represent a lifeline. They're betting that a late surge or a standout debate performance can catapult them into the top tier. In their minds, the party isn't trying to save the state; it's trying to protect the status quo.
The Republican strategy of staying quiet
While the Democrats are brawling in public, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are enjoying a relatively clear field. Jon Slavet, a long-shot Republican, recently dropped out, which only helped consolidate the GOP base.
The Republicans don't need to win a majority in June. They just need to stay unified while the Democrats remain divided. Hilton has used his media savvy to maintain name recognition, while Bianco has leaned into his law-and-order "Sheriff" persona, a message that’s resonating with voters tired of retail theft and homelessness.
The shadow of the 2024 Senate race
The ghost of the 2024 Senate primary looms over this entire contest. In that race, Adam Schiff’s campaign famously spent millions on ads "attacking" Republican Steve Garvey. The goal wasn't to hurt Garvey; it was to boost his profile among Republicans so he would finish second, knocking out Democratic Representative Katie Porter.
It worked. Porter was boxed out of the general election. Now, Porter is back, running for governor and wary of the same tactics. This time, however, there isn't one clear Democratic titan like Schiff to orchestrate the field. It’s a free-for-all, and that lack of a "manager" is exactly what has the party leadership terrified.
What actually happens if the lockout occurs
If two Republicans end up on the November ballot, it doesn't just mean a Republican governor—it means a massive drop in Democratic turnout. If there's no Democrat at the top of the ticket, Democratic voters stay home. That could be catastrophic for the party's quest to retake the U.S. House of Representatives. California has several swing seats that are vital to national control. A "red" top-of-the-ticket could flip those seats by default.
This isn't just about who sits in the governor's mansion in Sacramento. It's about who controls Congress in Washington.
Don't expect a resolution soon
The filing deadline has passed, and the names are locked in. Unless a candidate officially suspends their campaign and throws their support behind a rival before April 15—the date Hicks set as a soft deadline—the ballot will remain crowded.
Honestly, the candidates have very little incentive to quit. Most of them have spent years building these campaigns and raising millions of dollars. They aren't going to walk away because of a letter. They're going to ride this out until the June 2 primary, for better or worse.
If you're a California voter, your mailbox is about to get very crowded. If you're a Democratic strategist, you're probably looking for the nearest bottle of antacids. The "responsible" choice Hicks asked for isn't coming. The voters are going to have to sort this out themselves, and the results might just reshape the political map of the entire country.
If you want to track the shifting numbers yourself, keep a close eye on the weekly Emerson and PPIC updates. The real movement will happen in the final three weeks of May when the undecided block finally makes a choice.
